Super Bowl 49 Analysis And Prediction

Here in sunny Phoenix, you can't have consecutive conversations on any subject without the Super Bowl being mentioned. For good reason, Phoenix is the center of the universe this week and the game pitting the New England Patriots versus the Seattle Seahawks has all the makings of an epic encounter.

Then again, we thought the same thing about last season's Super Bowl...

On the first snap of last season's big game, the ball was sailed over Peyton Manning's head and it was all downhill from there as the almighty Denver Broncos were boatraced by the Seahawks 43-8.

Are we doomed for a repeat of last season?

Let's check the similarities. The Seahawks are the power of the NFC, featuring (arguably) the best secondary in the game and a stout defense that keeps opponents off the scoreboard while the offense gets ahead early and forces the opposition to play out of their comfort zone. The Patriots were the top team in the AFC or perhaps considered 1 and 1A most of the season when you include Denver in the mix. Both teams finished with identical 12-4 records and first round byes in the playoffs. In the end the Patriots had the edge due to a 43-21 win over the Broncos. The fact that the Patriots are the AFC representative in the Super Bowl erases all remaining doubt.

The Patriots also feature a deep and talented secondary and the best gameplanning staff in the league in Bill Belichick and crew. The Patriots offense, like Seattle, is not explosive by definition but they have bursts of scoring that is usually enough to put teams away.

Both teams come armed with a playmaking quarterback and one star complimentary player. Seattle has Russell Wilson and running back Marshawn Lynch. New England has Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Aside from those tag teams, neither offense has a player that strikes fear into the opposition. The question is which tandem will be held in check the best. Both teams have slow, plodding offenses with short rhythmic passing attacks. Neither team have a propensity to fire the ball deep down the field.

The differences are Seattle has a more creative offensive attack with Wilson running the read option. Wilson's ability to extend plays with his legs will create problems for the Patriots. New England has faced one running quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) and no read option teams all season. The Patriots, boring style and all, do average 30 points per game to Seattle's 24. All their offensive shortcomings are overshadowed by the ability of Brady to make the plays needed to win. Brady is in the argument of best quarterbacks of all time. New England is playing to cement their legacy while Seattle is hoping to create a legacy reminiscent of what the Patriots are doing now. Back to back Super Bowl wins over two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game will go a long way to doing so.

In the end, it boils down to can Seattle disrupt Tom Brady enough to make him average. He's great when he has time to throw and has established a rhythm. When the pass rush forces him to slip and slide in the pocket he becomes average and prone to making mistakes. Seattle's defense found its stride at the right time coming down the back stretch of the season as they reeled off six straight wins, allowing six points per game to the opposition. Only one team in that stretch scored more than 7 points.

For New England, the big question is can they stop Marshawn Lynch. Lynch is the most punishing runner in the league and over the course of a game defenders are less and less willing to tackle him head on. The Patriots have given up big rushing games to lesser backs this season. Moreno (132), Knile Davis (107), Chris Ivory (107), Matt Forte (114), Eddie Lacy (98) and Justin Forsett (129) in the Divisional Playoff against Baltimore. Stopping Lynch makes the read option and play action ineffective which is the Seahawks bread and butter.

Thankfully, this game looks dead even which means we won't be looking for something more interesting to do before halftime as was the case last year. The Seahawks will shackle Gronkowski for most of the game. He'll find an opening for one short touchdown catch. Seattle strong safety Kam Chancellor will be the unsung hero of the game. The heartbeat of Seattle's defense, force multiple incompletions on balls headed to Gronk and without his safety net Brady will falter.

The stingy Seahawks D will force field goals instead of allowing touchdowns in the red zone. Brady will throw for a pedestrian 250 yards and two touchdowns but the pass most talked about will be of the second half pick six he threw to Earl Thomas that broke the game open. One half of the Wilson/Lynch tag team will win the MVP and the 'Hawks will succeed in going back-to-back by a score of 30-23.

Are These The Last Days of 24 in San Diego?

Twenty three carries. That's how many rushing attempts it took Ryan Mathews to find his way back to his familiar spot on the sidelines. Mathews was injured in the Chargers week two home win against Seattle. With only Donald Brown and Branden Oliver to carry the load most of the season, the Chargers fell one game short of the playoffs. This is a pattern that is all too familiar when it comes to Ryan Mathews and it is time for a change for the betterment of the team.

Loyal BoltBlitz followers who read my columns know I am not a fan of 24. The Chargers are the one team I live and die for in all of sports and like all of you, I support my team to the fullest. Before my team loyalty is called into question, I'm sure there are players on our beloved team we have all disliked and did a happy dance when they were shown the door. Jared Gaither anyone? Larry English? Robert Meachem? Derek Cox? Those guys probably picked up their game checks with ski masks on because what they were doing is akin to stealing money from the team. We can always wish for the weak links to be replaced for more talented players and maintain our superfan status. In that line of thought, I paraphrase a line from Shakespeare's Julius Caesar:

I come not to praise 24, but to bury him.

Last season was an aberration and we all know it. For the first time in his four years as a Charger, Mathews played every game in a sixteen game season.  For essentially the entirety of his Chargers tenure Mathews has been fragile, unable to stay on the field and be productive. There has also been questions about his toughness and he's had issues holding on to the ball his entire pro career. The biggest issue is this wasn't just a streak of bad luck. Even in college at Fresno State, Mathews had a history of injury issues. The previous regime traded up sixteen spots in the first round of the 2010 draft to get him based on one outstanding season in 2009 when he led the nation in  rushing.

As Chargers fans, we've been spoiled. Mathews was brought in as the heir apparent to the legend known as LT, Ladainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson, who only missed ONE game in his first eight years as a Charger and dominated the league as it's best running back. Big shoes to fill. Before LT, the Chargers featured durable bruisers such as Natrone Means and Marion Butts in the 90's. Mathews was tapped to be next in the Chargers long line of outstanding feature backs. He fumbled that too.

Mathews came into this season on a high after finishing seventh in the league in rushing. This is also Mathews contract year. Time to face facts, there is no future with Mathews. Maybe his body can't stand the pounding. Maybe he trains wrong or not enough. Whatever it is he can't be depended on and the good news is Telesco now knows this. Mathews has been a quiet, humble man and is a valued member of the San Diego community. It's on the field where he comes up short.

Mathews missed seven games following the Seattle win and returned to face the Raiders at home after the bye week. Four games and 51 carries later, Mathews was done for the season. He looked good in his return but it was a short-lived return and that's the problem. 

San Diego simply can't rely on Mathews to be there in the clutch.  Mathews only played in played six games this season and a strong, successful rushing attack can't be attained when the number one running back can't stay on the field. 

In the end, I believe Telesco will let Mathews walk and the Chargers will bring in a big name back in free agency or the draft. Now that Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, the nation's leading rusher, has declared for the 2015 NFL Draft he's automatically the best running back on the board. This could be great for the Chargers since that pushes Todd Gurley and T.J. Yeldon down the draft board into the late first round if not the second altogether.

Am I saying the Chargers should draft a running back in the first or second round?

Yes.

The facts are these. For the first time in a decade, the Chargers have a ton of cash to spend in free agency. The most important areas that need to be addressed are the offensive and defensive lines and the secondary. If Telesco does as expected and uses that 25-30 million to address those needs then that does leave him the ability to draft a potentially franchise caliber running back like Gordon, Gurley or Yeldon. Drafting  a running back in the first couple rounds does not set a franchise back the way missing on a franchise quarterback does.  With its depth of talent at the running back position this draft would be one to give it a shot. Who wouldn't love to see Gordon or Gurley in lightning bolts next year providing thunder to Woodhead and Oliver's lightning?

Exactly.

Mathews is the last remaining item on the long list of mistakes left in Telesco's lap from the old regime. It is time to let Mathews go somewhere else and let a different fan base agonize over his fumbles and litany of injuries. Add a sprained MCL to all the ankle sprains, calf, hamstring and quad injuries that's kept him a mainstay in the trainer's room over the years. Lest we forget the broken collarbones. Aside from maybe...stuntmen, who breaks both collarbones in their lifetime, much less each one in a six month span? Yes, I think Bolt Nation has had enough seasons of 24. This series needs to be cancelled. Now.

 

What do you think? Do you want to see Mathews back in bolts next year?

 

Bolt Up

 

The Greg One

 

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