Why San Diego will defeat New England sunday
I have been a football fan my entire life and I can not think of a time before this when the best team in the league is getting so disrespected. On Sunday, the hottest and best team in the league, the San Diego Chargers, will face the New England Patriots in the AFC divisional playoff late game. I have seen the braodcasts on ESPN and the other sports channels, listened to talk radio and heard the predictions of the so called 'experts' and from the sounds of things, you'd think the Chargers were the worst team in the playoffs.
We all know New England is a good team. They have proven themselves as the highest quality. They have won Super Bowls in recent years. They did win their weak division. Everybody loves Tom Brady but where is the same recognition for the Chargers? All San Diego did was finish the season with the best record. All San Diego did was go undefeated at home. All San Diego did was dominate the best division in the NFL, the AFC West. All San Diego did was score more points and average more points per game than any team in the league. Yet, rare is the prognosticator who is picking the Chargers to win this game.
One thing that all are agreeing on is that this is the marquee game of the divisional playoffs. Four faces drive the storyline forward. Two are the coaches. San Diego Charger coach Marty Schottenheimer has never had trouble winning anywhere he has been as evidenced by his 210 career wins. The blemish on his career is his 5-12 playoff record. The coach that introduced an offense so heavily dependent on the run it was termed 'Martyball' has continually led successful regular season teams to playoff failure.
On the other sideline is Bill Belichick, the annointed genius of the NFL. Belichick is known for devising game plans to stop the oppositions' best player and put the pressure to win on the supporting cast. His schemes have become legendary and he continues to win even as the level of talent on his team diminishes. Belichick is 12-2 in the playoffs, second best winning percentage in NFL history.
The other principles in this show are players themselves.
There is the NFL's golden boy Tom Brady. Brady has won three Super Bowls and has two Super Bowl MVP awards. He's the glamour boy quarterback without the big ego that all the women love and all the men want to be. Brady has had a knack for getting the job done no matter what the odds. Brady has only lost one game in the playoffs and is 11-1 in the postseason.
Brady's name is mentioned the most when talk turns to this matchup but should it be?
How in the world, the man who became the NFL rushing champion, AP Offensive player of the year, NFL MVP, new rushing touchdown record holder and all time single season points champion in one season can go virtuallty unnoticed in all this? It is beyond me but that seems to have happened to Ladainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson does not talk smack about himself, other teams, other players or do anything to draw atention to himself. He lets his play do the talking and the aforementioned records are just a portion of the many records he set this season. Tomlinson is hands down the best running back in the league. Tomlinson is the ultimate weapon. He can score from anywhere on the field. He has run, caught and thrown touchdowns this season. Tomlinson carried the team on his back while the team was decimated by injuries on defense with defensive rookie of the year Shawne Merriman serving a four game suspension for the steroid Nandrolone. As a result of his superhuman efforts, San Diego finished the season on a ten-game win streak. In the process, they solidified their number one seed, good for home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
The true wild card in the equation and the reason the Chargers have been getting so little respect despite their unequalled success this season is Philip Rivers. The Chargers' quarterback took over the team once Drew Brees was let go to sign with New Orleans. After two seasons of watching from the bench, Rivers went into training camp as the bona fide starter. The N.C. State product and #2 passer in NCAA history showed the presence and leadership that made him a winner in college, as evidenced by the five bowl games he played in during his collegiate career (including the Senior Bowl). After a loss to Baltimore in Week 4, coach Schottenheimer took the blame for being too conservative in the play calling. As a result, Rivers was finally allowed to showcase his arm and he showed a cannon of an arm, pinpoint accuracy and the ability to lead game-winning drives. The quarterback has had a rough final quarter of the season. Before the season ending game in San Diego against the Cardinals, Rivers had gone 18-53 passing in the two previous games. Although he did hit game winning touchdown passes in the fourth quarter of those games his slump only looked worse in comparison to the solid numbers he posted after the Baltimore game. Every quarterback goes through a slump sometime during their first year as a starter simply because they are not used to the speed,repetition and number of games compared to college. Fact is, Rivers has been a top quarterback in the league all season and is the best in the forth quarter when the game is on the line, yes, even better than Tom Brady. The stats bear it out.
If Drew Brees were still in San Diego, the Chargers would most likely be the hands down favorites to win this game but that's not the case. The game will come down to how Bill Belichick will be able to game plan to stop Ladainian Tomlinson. The Chargers played the Patriots in Foxboro last season and dominated the Patriots 41-17. Tomlinson has owned the Patriots in their last two meetings. In '05, LT rushed for 134 yards and two touchdowns, ending New England's 21-game home winning streak in the process. In 2002, Tomlinson had 217 yards and two touchdowns in a 21-14 win in San Diego. The offensive line for San Diego has stayed largely intact and as a result of that and fullback Lorenzo Neal's blocking, Tomlinson has 23 touchdowns during the Chargers 10-game win streak.
Another key to the game will be how will Tom Brady handle the Charger defense. Before the string of injuries on defense around week five the Chargers were no lower than #2 in the league. Even with substitutes filling in, the Chargers led the league in sacks. Shawne Merriman leads the NFL in sacks with 17, even after missing four games. The pressure has forced opponents into turnovers and bad decisions and the unproven stand-ins have made their mark while the starters healed. The Chargers are 10th in the league in total defense, the lowest they have been ranked all season. With the extra week to prepare and get their full complement on defense back on the field, Brady could very well be facing the best defense in the league. Brady lost a load of offensive weapons. Brady was vocal about losing his favorite wideout, Deion Branch, early in the season. David Givens also left. His go-to wideout this season has been Reche Caldwell, his last team: San Diego. Will Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney be able to run against the Charger defense at full strength? Doubtful. Brady will have to beat the Chargers with his arm and his line will have to keep Merriman and company off his back long enough to complete passes. Again, a tall order.
New England's defense is nothing to sneeze at either. The Patriots are 6th in the league in total defense. They will mix their coverages to try to confuse Rivers and try to keep as many as they can close to the line to try to stop Tomlinson. Rivers will need to complete passes to keep the Patriots honest. Rivers came out of his funk in the season finale against the Cardinals as he went 19-24 for 231 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2.5 quarters of play. Rivers will look for tight end Antonio Gates over the middle and take advantage of a Patriots' secondary that will be missing defensive leader Rodney Harrison. Success will mean wider running lanes for Tomlinson and more one on one coverage against wideouts Keenan McCardell and Vincent Jackson. McCardell is a vet who's playoff experience will come in handy. Jackson has been showing flashes of brilliance. His game winning catch against the Seahawks with under a minute remaining in the game kept the Chargers from falling into a tie for best record with the Ravens. The Ravens would have won the top seed and home field based on their Week 4 victory. Jackson has emerged as a go-to wide reciever for Rivers but will still be low on the list of priorities for the Patriots. For once, the Chargers have a better collection of wideouts than their opponent does. Having Tomlinson recieving passes makes up for a lot in that area.
In the end, the only team that can beat the Chargers are the Chargers. As long as Marty does not revert back to 'Martyball', the Chargers will stay undefeated at home this season. The Patriots will get a heavy dose of Tomlinson to be sure, but Rivers will be allowed to put air under the ball, unlike the first four weeks where he barely topped double digits in passing. The defense will swarm Tom Brady and the pressure will force that group of average recievers to make plays, which I don't think they will in San Diego. Brady is a big game quarterback but the Chargers have been a big game TEAM this season and this is their year. There is only one great team in the NFL and they are about to show you don't reel off ten straight wins by accident. The Chargers will send Tom Brady to his second postseason defeat in as many years and advance to the championship round with a 24-17 victory.
We all know New England is a good team. They have proven themselves as the highest quality. They have won Super Bowls in recent years. They did win their weak division. Everybody loves Tom Brady but where is the same recognition for the Chargers? All San Diego did was finish the season with the best record. All San Diego did was go undefeated at home. All San Diego did was dominate the best division in the NFL, the AFC West. All San Diego did was score more points and average more points per game than any team in the league. Yet, rare is the prognosticator who is picking the Chargers to win this game.
One thing that all are agreeing on is that this is the marquee game of the divisional playoffs. Four faces drive the storyline forward. Two are the coaches. San Diego Charger coach Marty Schottenheimer has never had trouble winning anywhere he has been as evidenced by his 210 career wins. The blemish on his career is his 5-12 playoff record. The coach that introduced an offense so heavily dependent on the run it was termed 'Martyball' has continually led successful regular season teams to playoff failure.
On the other sideline is Bill Belichick, the annointed genius of the NFL. Belichick is known for devising game plans to stop the oppositions' best player and put the pressure to win on the supporting cast. His schemes have become legendary and he continues to win even as the level of talent on his team diminishes. Belichick is 12-2 in the playoffs, second best winning percentage in NFL history.
The other principles in this show are players themselves.
There is the NFL's golden boy Tom Brady. Brady has won three Super Bowls and has two Super Bowl MVP awards. He's the glamour boy quarterback without the big ego that all the women love and all the men want to be. Brady has had a knack for getting the job done no matter what the odds. Brady has only lost one game in the playoffs and is 11-1 in the postseason.
Brady's name is mentioned the most when talk turns to this matchup but should it be?
How in the world, the man who became the NFL rushing champion, AP Offensive player of the year, NFL MVP, new rushing touchdown record holder and all time single season points champion in one season can go virtuallty unnoticed in all this? It is beyond me but that seems to have happened to Ladainian Tomlinson. Tomlinson does not talk smack about himself, other teams, other players or do anything to draw atention to himself. He lets his play do the talking and the aforementioned records are just a portion of the many records he set this season. Tomlinson is hands down the best running back in the league. Tomlinson is the ultimate weapon. He can score from anywhere on the field. He has run, caught and thrown touchdowns this season. Tomlinson carried the team on his back while the team was decimated by injuries on defense with defensive rookie of the year Shawne Merriman serving a four game suspension for the steroid Nandrolone. As a result of his superhuman efforts, San Diego finished the season on a ten-game win streak. In the process, they solidified their number one seed, good for home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
The true wild card in the equation and the reason the Chargers have been getting so little respect despite their unequalled success this season is Philip Rivers. The Chargers' quarterback took over the team once Drew Brees was let go to sign with New Orleans. After two seasons of watching from the bench, Rivers went into training camp as the bona fide starter. The N.C. State product and #2 passer in NCAA history showed the presence and leadership that made him a winner in college, as evidenced by the five bowl games he played in during his collegiate career (including the Senior Bowl). After a loss to Baltimore in Week 4, coach Schottenheimer took the blame for being too conservative in the play calling. As a result, Rivers was finally allowed to showcase his arm and he showed a cannon of an arm, pinpoint accuracy and the ability to lead game-winning drives. The quarterback has had a rough final quarter of the season. Before the season ending game in San Diego against the Cardinals, Rivers had gone 18-53 passing in the two previous games. Although he did hit game winning touchdown passes in the fourth quarter of those games his slump only looked worse in comparison to the solid numbers he posted after the Baltimore game. Every quarterback goes through a slump sometime during their first year as a starter simply because they are not used to the speed,repetition and number of games compared to college. Fact is, Rivers has been a top quarterback in the league all season and is the best in the forth quarter when the game is on the line, yes, even better than Tom Brady. The stats bear it out.
If Drew Brees were still in San Diego, the Chargers would most likely be the hands down favorites to win this game but that's not the case. The game will come down to how Bill Belichick will be able to game plan to stop Ladainian Tomlinson. The Chargers played the Patriots in Foxboro last season and dominated the Patriots 41-17. Tomlinson has owned the Patriots in their last two meetings. In '05, LT rushed for 134 yards and two touchdowns, ending New England's 21-game home winning streak in the process. In 2002, Tomlinson had 217 yards and two touchdowns in a 21-14 win in San Diego. The offensive line for San Diego has stayed largely intact and as a result of that and fullback Lorenzo Neal's blocking, Tomlinson has 23 touchdowns during the Chargers 10-game win streak.
Another key to the game will be how will Tom Brady handle the Charger defense. Before the string of injuries on defense around week five the Chargers were no lower than #2 in the league. Even with substitutes filling in, the Chargers led the league in sacks. Shawne Merriman leads the NFL in sacks with 17, even after missing four games. The pressure has forced opponents into turnovers and bad decisions and the unproven stand-ins have made their mark while the starters healed. The Chargers are 10th in the league in total defense, the lowest they have been ranked all season. With the extra week to prepare and get their full complement on defense back on the field, Brady could very well be facing the best defense in the league. Brady lost a load of offensive weapons. Brady was vocal about losing his favorite wideout, Deion Branch, early in the season. David Givens also left. His go-to wideout this season has been Reche Caldwell, his last team: San Diego. Will Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney be able to run against the Charger defense at full strength? Doubtful. Brady will have to beat the Chargers with his arm and his line will have to keep Merriman and company off his back long enough to complete passes. Again, a tall order.
New England's defense is nothing to sneeze at either. The Patriots are 6th in the league in total defense. They will mix their coverages to try to confuse Rivers and try to keep as many as they can close to the line to try to stop Tomlinson. Rivers will need to complete passes to keep the Patriots honest. Rivers came out of his funk in the season finale against the Cardinals as he went 19-24 for 231 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2.5 quarters of play. Rivers will look for tight end Antonio Gates over the middle and take advantage of a Patriots' secondary that will be missing defensive leader Rodney Harrison. Success will mean wider running lanes for Tomlinson and more one on one coverage against wideouts Keenan McCardell and Vincent Jackson. McCardell is a vet who's playoff experience will come in handy. Jackson has been showing flashes of brilliance. His game winning catch against the Seahawks with under a minute remaining in the game kept the Chargers from falling into a tie for best record with the Ravens. The Ravens would have won the top seed and home field based on their Week 4 victory. Jackson has emerged as a go-to wide reciever for Rivers but will still be low on the list of priorities for the Patriots. For once, the Chargers have a better collection of wideouts than their opponent does. Having Tomlinson recieving passes makes up for a lot in that area.
In the end, the only team that can beat the Chargers are the Chargers. As long as Marty does not revert back to 'Martyball', the Chargers will stay undefeated at home this season. The Patriots will get a heavy dose of Tomlinson to be sure, but Rivers will be allowed to put air under the ball, unlike the first four weeks where he barely topped double digits in passing. The defense will swarm Tom Brady and the pressure will force that group of average recievers to make plays, which I don't think they will in San Diego. Brady is a big game quarterback but the Chargers have been a big game TEAM this season and this is their year. There is only one great team in the NFL and they are about to show you don't reel off ten straight wins by accident. The Chargers will send Tom Brady to his second postseason defeat in as many years and advance to the championship round with a 24-17 victory.
posted by TheLegacyKey | 8:01 PM
1 Comments:
Well written article.
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